Kazakhstan is experiencing the worst street protests the country has seen since gaining independence three decades ago.
The outburst of instability is causing meaningful concern in Kazakhstan’s two powerful neighbors: Russia and China. The country sells most of its oil exports to China and is a meaningful strategic ally of Moscow.
A sudden spike in the price of car fuel at the start of the year triggered the first protests in a far away oil town in the west. But the tens of thousands who have since surged onto the streets across more than a dozen cities and towns now have the complete authoritarian government in their sights.
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has cut an increasingly desperate figure. He first sought to mollify the crowds by dismissing the complete government early Wednesday. But by the end of the day he had changed course. First, he described demonstrators as terrorists. Then he appealed to a Russian-led military alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, for help in crushing the uprising and the CSTO agreed to send an unspecified number of peacekeepers.
Why are people angry?
Of the five Central Asian republics that attained independence following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan is by far the largest and the wealthiest. It spans a territory the size of Western Europe and sits atop colossal reserves of oil, natural gas, uranium and precious metals.
But while Kazakhstan’s natural riches have helped it cultivate a substantial middle class, in addition as a substantial cohort of ultrarich tycoons, financial hardship is extensive. The average national monthly salary is just under $600. The banking system has fallen prey to thorough crises precipitated by non-performing loans. As in much of the rest of the vicinity, petty corruption is rampant.
The rally that set off the latest crisis took place in the dusty western oil town of Zhanaozen. Resentments have long festered in the area over a sense that the vicinity’s energy riches haven’t been fairly spread among the local population. In 2011, police shot dead at the minimum 15 people in the city who were protesting in sustain of oil workers dismissed after a strike.
When prices for the liquified petroleum gas most people in the area use to strength their cars doubled overnight Saturday, patience snapped. Residents in nearby cities quickly joined in and within days large protests had spread to the rest of the country.
Who is leading the protests?
The suppression of basic voices in Kazakhstan has long been the norm. Any figures aspiring to oppose the government have either been repressed, sidelined or co-opted. So, although these displays have been unusually large — some drawing more than 10,000 people, a large number for Kazakhstan — no protest movement leaders have emerged.
For most of Kazakhstan’s recent history, strength was held in the hands of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev. That changed in 2019 when Nazarbayev, now 81, stepped aside and anointed his long-time ally Tokayev as his successor. In his capacity as head of the security council that oversees the military and security sets, Nazarbayev continued to retain important sway over the country. Tokayev announced Wednesday that he was taking over from Nazarbayev as security council head.
Much of the anger displayed on the streets in recent days was directed not at Tokayev, but at Nazarbayev, who is nevertheless widely deemed the country’s ultimate ruler. The slogan “Shal ket!” (“Old man, go”) has become a main slogan.
How are the authorities responding?
A police official in Almaty said Thursday that dozens of protesters were killed in attacks on government buildings. at the minimum a dozen police officers were also killed, including one who got beheaded.
There were attempts to storm buildings in Almaty during the night and “dozens of attackers were liquidated,” police spokeswoman Saltanat Azirbek said. She spoke on state news channel Khabar-24. The reported attempts to storm the buildings came after extensive unrest in the city on Wednesday, including seizure of the mayor’s building, which was set on fire.
The initial reaction was jibe with usual policy in the confront of public discontent. Police and the National Guard were deployed in large numbers. The crowd that made its way to City Hall in the commercial capital, Almaty, early Wednesday was met by large phalanxes of riot police and armored personnel carriers. While gatherings are typically distributed with ease, the number of people on the street this time was too large.
With government buildings coming under assault in several large cities, Tokayev appealed for help from the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a Moscow-led military alliance. He justified the allurement for external intervention by claiming the protesters were operating at the behest of international terrorist groups. He offered no details on what he meant by that.
Is the government likely to be toppled?
This is uncharted territory for Kazakhstan. The country has seen major displays before: In 2016, after the passage of a contentious land law. And again in 2019, after the contentious election that secured Tokayev’s keep up on strength. But never anything on this extent.
In one of his appeals to the public Wednesday, Tokayev pledged to pursue reforms and hinted that political liberalization might be possible. His darker remarks toward the end of the day, however, suggested he would instead go down a more repressive road.
nevertheless, because the street protests are so lacking in focus, at the minimum for now, it’s difficult to see how they might end. But already if they fail to topple the government, it looks possible they might rule to thorough transformation. What is not clear is what that might average.
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